An unannounced update for Counter-Strike 2 has turned the billion-dollar skin market upside down overnight.
A new update for Counter-Strike 2, released by Valve on the night of October 23, has fundamentally shaken up the shooter’s digital trading and collecting market. The culprit is a change to the “Trade Up Contract,” a system that allows players to trade skins of lower rarity for a higher-level item.
Until now, it was not possible to obtain the most coveted items – knives and gloves – in this way. Valve has now changed this: players can now exchange five “Covert” skins (red rarity level) for a guaranteed knife or pair of gloves, which triggered a violent chain reaction on the Steam Community Market.
Billions in value wiped out in hours
The most direct consequence of the update was a massive drop in the price of knife and glove skins: Since these are now much easier to craft and, above all, guaranteed to be crafted, their exclusivity and thus their value plummeted dramatically.
According to reports from market trackers such as Pricempire.com , the CS2 skin economy, previously estimated at over $6 billion, lost around $1.75 billion in value in less than 24 hours. Just a few hours later, the loss was already estimated at $2.4 billion.
In fact, there are many players who have used their rare items as an investment—and for them, the update has devastating financial consequences.
Social media and Reddit were flooded with reports from users whose digital inventories lost thousands of dollars in value overnight. A prominent example is CS2 pro player Olof “olofmeister” Kajbjer Gustafsson, who had to watch live on stream as the value of his collection fell from around $58,000 to just $18,000 – a loss of $40,000.
The other side: Sudden wealth
While some lamented their losses, the update opened up a gold mine for others: Demand for the “Covert” skins required for the trade-up contract exploded instantly. These skins, which were often worth only a few euros, rose rapidly in price. Players who either owned a large quantity of these cheaper skins or reacted quickly enough to buy them up at the beginning of the chaos were able to use them to “craft” much more expensive knives and gloves.
Essentially, the update shifted the value scale: inexpensive skins worth a few dollars suddenly became the key to items that previously cost hundreds or thousands of dollars.
For example, claims streamer TrainwrecksTV, who has amassed over 80,000 items over the years, that his collection is now worth a hundred times as much after the update.
What is Valve’s purpose with this change?
We can only speculate about Valve’s exact motives, but the most likely explanation is an attempt to regain control over the sprawling skin market. Much of the trading of the most expensive items has taken place on third-party websites, as the Steam Community Market has a price cap of $1,800.
By making the rarest items more accessible, Valve may be trying to make this external trading less attractive and steer more transactions (and the associated fees) back to its own platform.
